Monday, May 23, 2011

The Next Invasion

With Bin Laden eliminated, Abbotabad is now recent yet painful history. Wounds of a relationship that continue to fester and refuse to heal even in the immediate future have now been exposed for all and sundry to behold.

Abbotabads Secret
It was Leon Panetta, the CIA Director who initially decided to blow the cover on the famous American-Pakistani-I-fund-you-to-eliminate-them strategy. The fact that Pakistan can no longer be trusted as an ally on the war on terror is now in black and white ink for all to see!!

Surprisingly, this American rage was soon to be followed by behind-closed-doors parleys to repair the seemingly unworkable relationship. The underlying assumption is that engagement with Pakistan is the only viable path ahead for the US and its allies (voluntary/involuntary) to consider as it is the road of least collateral damage.

However, there is yet another alternative course of action, not presently on the table on the merits of its sheer implausibility - but one that would seize the bull (terrorism) by its horns with the potential to blunt it permanently!! This can only be The American Invasion of Pakistan!!

Consider this, an American Invasion would give the CIA/its cohorts the means to seek and wipe-out, (if not inflict severe damage upon) the Haqqani Network of tribals in the Wazirstan belt (NWFP) which have been claiming countless NATO lives in the war on terror in Afghanistan. Secondly, with the Amerivcans in Islamabad, the ISI would be under the microscope and their operations closely monitored. It would hence be impossible for them operate with impunity (as they presenly are) and continue their covert operations of harbouring terrorists. 

Finally, Pakistan has been accelerating its nuclear weaponization programme for quite sometime now and much of the funding for this has come from the billions of dollars in aid that an overdebted US has given it to purportedly fight terror. With Americans in the house, misuse of such funds can easily be tracked.

However, as beneficial as this option may seem, is too fissile even for discussion. 

One of the biggest reasons this option would not be considered is that at this particular juncture, any American invasion of a Muslim country (especially if it were Pakistan), would isolate America from the majority of muslims worldwide, just at the time when things seem to be thawing. Worse still, an invasion would serve to polarize Pakistanis even further and may even drive the contracting liberal base in Pakistan towards the lunatic fringe turning it into a nation of extremists. The Americans may end up staying longer than they intend too.

Yet another long drawn out war may be indeed difficult to justify to Congress, especially at a time when America is borrowing its way out of insolvency. Its true, one can always justify the invasion of Pakistan, from the American standpoint on the grounds of halting once and for all the unlimited briefcases of aid that are needed to keep the regime from collapsing. If this is not enough, the closest ally of Pakistan from across its eastern border, China, will not be expected to sit twiddling its thumbs while American GI-Joe's stream into Pakistan.

The impact of such a move could be far-reaching, and the outcome, sometimes mind boggling. However, the fact remains that a Pakistani Invasion makes more sense than an Iranian Invasion or even a North Korean Invasion. All these 3 countries are developing nuclear weapons, and have the means to use them, but in 2 of the 3 cases, the decision to GO NUCLEAR would be an executive one.

America spends Billions of dollars in Aid annually financing a government in Islamabad that keeps biting the hand that feeds it. On the other hand Pakistan doesn't shy away from throwing up its hands every now and then and claiming that they too are victims of terrorism.

With Billions of dollars in aid gone down the drain and more in the pipeline heading the same way, an over-armed Pakistan where extremists have a free-run is a frightening prospect for the entire region. The American Invasion of Pakistan does indeed seem to be that unspoken option which is sitting quietly on the tip of everyone's lips waiting for its right moment!!

Article first published as The Next American Invasion on Technorati.