Greek Pastries and Bitter Herbs

Socrates would have rattled on regardless "those fools spent that which they did not have" !! Plato would have swore the state and balked at the profligate lending that led this historic nation to the brink of collapse while holding the future of the European Union at worlds end.

Yes!! The Greeks should never have over-leveraged themselves with debt. The post-mortem is always easier to listen to or write about, especially since analysts pop out of nowhere onto the screens with their expert opinions.

While Riots flare up in Greece and the common man readies himself to feel the pinch of the proposed austerity measures, it is almost necessary to take a long hard look at the system itself. Capitalism riding alongside democracy is often touted as the only system that would lead to a better world. A world where what you sow is exactly what you reap (give and take a few weeds), where the market has no favorites and merit is all pervading.

In my opinion that probably still is the case. It is often observed that peoples love for capitalism reaches its zenith when the economy is at its crest. The US Economy is a typical case in point. Free markets do allow Financial Institutions to over-leverage themselves since at the end of the day it is "profit" that everyone looks for. The US is still pulling back from their second biggest recession, but it is indeed unbelievable that their citizens still repose faith in the system. Elsewhere in the world too, in Britain, the new coalition Government is pushing through their toughest known austerity measures since they once ruled India. 

However, it is also noticed that peoples wrath against the system is normally vented in times like these, when the economy is dancing on a tightrope above a deep recessionary gorge. More so in Greece, especially since the public sector workers now feel that they are being shortchanged for no fault of their own. Much of the criticism is also due to the fat paychecks that Wall Street fat cats are still taking home despite the US Economy being in a Limbo

What people (or the mob) do not understand is that no political system is free from human exploitation. Greed is the hidden nature in all of humanity, whether Socialist, Communist, Theocratic or Monarchic. All forms of government bestow power upon a selected group of individuals (or maybe even one) to rule and more often than not, exploitation driven by greed gradually seeps into the system.

So the Greeks have 2 options before them. Having feasted on their Baklava for the last decade or so, they must now eat bitter herbs. They would just love to respond to the crisis in the manner that America has (to borrow its way out), but unfortunately the dollar is still the words reserve currency and that gives America the kind of leverage that no other country presently has.

They can, like Britain be convinced into eating bitter herbs (implementing tough austerity measures), but too much austerity in a limping economy would not do the trick unless it is followed up by regulations that untangle restrictions in Greece for Private businesses to operate/thrive. 

Instead, they have chosen to blackmail the EU into leaving the Euro if harsh austerity measures are forced upon them. They seem to be forgetting the adage "there ain’t no free lunch". Decoupling from the Euro will serve them no purpose whatsoever. They would then be forced to return to their original currency, the "Drachma", and given the state of things, the Greeks will never be able to raise money on its own via bonds, which would be relegated upon listing to junk status.

Not to mention of course that leaving the Euro would be tantamount to "kicking the can down the road". To put it in a nutshell, whichever option the Greeks choose, their days of sweet shopping are over, and a long cold winter is about to set in, one accompanied by the steaming smell of bitter herbs. 

Initially posted on http://technorati.com/politics/article/greek-pastries-and-bitter-erbs/page-2/#ixzz1Qk6pc2AF 

Manmohan Singh: Just A Nice Man To Know

"Threats posed by terrorism and other challenges like poverty eradication, sustainable development and inequitable international order were issues on which India and Africa should work together" -
- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (India-Africa Summit 2011)

"I welcome it as a significant step forward and hope that it will deal a decisive blow to al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups ... The international community and Pakistan in particular must work comprehensively to end the activities of all such groups who threaten civilised behaviour and kill innocent men, women and children".
- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (hours after US President Barack Obama addressed the nation after Osama's Capture)

We have the opportunity to give concrete meaning to the concept of sustainable and balanced development, and produce innovative models of development.                                                                                                      - Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the BRIC Summit after the Japaneese Nuclear Tragedy.

When he was first given the mantle from Sonia Gandhi after the 2004 General elections unexpectedly, Manmohan Singh rose to the occasion. That time though, with the leftists constantly needling all his policy moves, there was little that could be accomplished on the economic reforms front.

It would be fair to say that the first term of Manmohan's Premiership had to be sacrificed at the altar of the ruffled millions that had cheered the party to power in the first place. At halfway point, the advent of the controversial Indo-American Nuclear Deal edged out the communists and gifted Manmohan Singh and his team the mandate they had always yearned for.

Two years ago when Manmohan Singh was re-elected for his second term by a comfortable majority things seemed to be set for the long haul. However, upon retrospect, that seems to have been the pinnacle of his innings in power. For since then, his image, his party and the nation have been in a slow and steady decline!! 

Ironically, 7 years down the line, India's Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh has gone from being the acclaimed architecht of India's reforms to a mere nonchalant (and at times speechless) observer. Every now and then, when the public outcry gets louder, he simply raises his mild voice and makes the same old usual expected statements.

Surprisingly, unlike his predecessors, this Prime Minister has an obsession with maintaining his clean image. Scandal after scandal has rocked the nation and apart from his usual political promises of "cleaning up the system", what has stunned the many political observers was the ample amount of scribbling that lined the walls leading up to the crisis. Whistleblowers from high places were just brushed aside with sheer apathy.

A recent piece of video footage of the Prime Minister in parliament amidst the uproar over the scandals depicted a stern-faced chief who seemed unable to produce any kind of magic and has just simply run out of ideas. All the speeches he delivers, are at most,  predictable in nature and the quotes (listed atop) he intersperses to drive home his message are nothing more than lackluster.

This leaves one to wonder, whether we really have the best man for the job, on the job!!

It was PM Manmohan Singh who after all, ably steered the nation out of the Balance of Payments crisis in 1991, and alongside the then PM Narasimha Rao ushered in the reforms that brought India where it is today. At quick glance, his list of educational qualifications would leave most of the other world leaders gasping in shock and awe!! 

But then, education alone maketh not a consummate politician in this largely connected Greenhouse we inhabit today, where a ravaging tsunami halfway across the world could edge food inflation in the wrong direction elsewhere. What flabbergasts most analysts is that a person of the stature of our PM would probably be the best fit to steer our country out of its present economic over-heating.

Yet - There is a silence. Nothing - but a deafening silence!!

Its quite difficult to believe that very the man who took India out of its Economic Isolation in 1991, now remains a mute spectator as his sub-ordinates run themselves aground,  pulling his government down with them.

2 possible reasons for this are of course rather obvious even to the man-on-the-street. The first being that the Prime Minister gets his orders straight from the Party President, Sonia Gandhi. Successive years of constantly yielding to her whims (even when he didn’t like them) may have left him weary and depleted of energy.

The second reason is closely linked to the first. When there is a power behind the throne, the head of state psychologically loses whatever authority he has, or thought he ever had. A glance at the political stalemate today gives one enough evidence to substantiate this. Cabinet Ministers are trampling on each others feet while important economic reforms are getting stalled.

Scandal Management is completely out of control. Corruption has reared its ugly head for far too long now and social activists have now taken to starving themselves amidst 
a frustrated electorate in order to force the governments hand.

Oh - and just where is the Prime Minister in all this chaos!!

Well - The answer has already been stated!! - either making some usual statements or .. as expected .. Silent. We somehow really need a grand awakening to get out of this stupor. India was once quoted to be a land of great Ideas with rotten implementers. One can only hope and wish that this quote remains relevant to an age gone by.

The Next Invasion

With Bin Laden eliminated, Abbotabad is now recent yet painful history. Wounds of a relationship that continue to fester and refuse to heal even in the immediate future have now been exposed for all and sundry to behold.


Abbotabads Secret

It was Leon Panetta, the CIA Director who initially decided to blow the cover on the famous American-Pakistani-I-fund-you-to-eliminate-them strategy. The fact that Pakistan can no longer be trusted as an ally on the war on terror is now in black and white ink for all to see!!

Surprisingly, this American rage was soon to be followed by behind-closed-doors parleys to repair the seemingly unworkable relationship. The underlying assumption is that engagement with Pakistan is the only viable path ahead for the US and its allies (voluntary/involuntary) to consider as it is the road of least collateral damage.

However, there is yet another alternative course of action, not presently on the table on the merits of its sheer implausibility - but one that would seize the bull (terrorism) by its horns with the potential to blunt it permanently!! This can only be The American Invasion of Pakistan!!

Consider this, an American Invasion would give the CIA/its cohorts the means to seek and wipe-out, (if not inflict severe damage upon) the Haqqani Network of tribals in the Wazirstan belt (NWFP) which have been claiming countless NATO lives in the war on terror in Afghanistan. Secondly, with the Amerivcans in Islamabad, the ISI would be under the microscope and their operations closely monitored. It would hence be impossible for them operate with impunity (as they presenly are) and continue their covert operations of harbouring terrorists. 

Finally, Pakistan has been accelerating its nuclear weaponization programme for quite sometime now and much of the funding for this has come from the billions of dollars in aid that an overdebted US has given it to purportedly fight terror. With Americans in the house, misuse of such funds can easily be tracked.

However, as beneficial as this option may seem, is too fissile even for discussion. 

One of the biggest reasons this option would not be considered is that at this particular juncture, any American invasion of a Muslim country (especially if it were Pakistan), would isolate America from the majority of muslims worldwide, just at the time when things seem to be thawing. Worse still, an invasion would serve to polarize Pakistanis even further and may even drive the contracting liberal base in Pakistan towards the lunatic fringe turning it into a nation of extremists. The Americans may end up staying longer than they intend too.

Yet another long drawn out war may be indeed difficult to justify to Congress, especially at a time when America is borrowing its way out of insolvency. Its true, one can always justify the invasion of Pakistan, from the American standpoint on the grounds of halting once and for all the unlimited briefcases of aid that are needed to keep the regime from collapsing. If this is not enough, the closest ally of Pakistan from across its eastern border, China, will not be expected to sit twiddling its thumbs while American GI-Joe's stream into Pakistan.

The impact of such a move could be far-reaching, and the outcome, sometimes mind boggling. However, the fact remains that a Pakistani Invasion makes more sense than an Iranian Invasion or even a North Korean Invasion. All these 3 countries are developing nuclear weapons, and have the means to use them, but in 2 of the 3 cases, the decision to GO NUCLEAR would be an executive one.

America spends Billions of dollars in Aid annually financing a government in Islamabad that keeps biting the hand that feeds it. On the other hand Pakistan doesn't shy away from throwing up its hands every now and then and claiming that they too are victims of terrorism.

With Billions of dollars in aid gone down the drain and more in the pipeline heading the same way, an over-armed Pakistan where extremists have a free-run is a frightening prospect for the entire region. The American Invasion of Pakistan does indeed seem to be that unspoken option which is sitting quietly on the tip of everyone's lips waiting for its right moment!!

Article first published as The Next American Invasion on Technorati.

Sowing The Whirlwind

For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind
- Hosea 8:7

A very interesting passage from the Old Testament that pretty much sums up the looming fate that the land of the Rising Sun is slowly coming to accept. Expats have started to slowly move out of Japan in tiny droves. The very thought of radiation being carried south into Tokyo and its other cities alongside the memories of the horrific images of the fallout of the Chernobyl disaster in 1989 could give anyone the goose bumps.

However many Japanese are still staying put, hoping against hope that their Government would eventually issue a statement despite reasonable doubt, that things have been brought under control in Fukushima and that they can go on with their lives like before as if nothing ever happened. In fact, when the
earthquake followed by the tsunami first hit Japan on the 11th of March, the stability of the nuclear plant was a mere blimp on the scale of the tsunami disaster. It took a few days to blow its top off.

As the whole world decides to take stock of the safety of their Nuclear Plants, India wobbles in the middle of nowhere. After the landmark India-US Nuclear Deal in October 2008 that pulled India out of Nuclear Isolation and gave her access to the world market, things were indeed supposed to look up. Giant US Companies like Westinghouse and GE were lining up to get a large chunk of the Indian Nuclear pie where power generation is presently tagged at 4,800MW and projected to increase to 20,000MW by 2020.

For a country starved of energy where periodic power cuts are part of the norm, nuclear energy seemed like a Godsend. Its reputation for being both clean and reliable has not been tarnished even after both the Chernobyl and 3 Mile Island disasters. Moreover when one sees developed nations such as the US having more than 100 Nuclear power plants and France getting more than 50% of its power from Nuclear energy, one can only feel reassured.

However a rethink has already been initiated worldwide. Germany and Switzerland have already announced moratoriums on any new nuclear power plants in the offing while lobbyists were sleepless in Capitol Hill last week trying to prove to congressmen how safe Nuclear Power actually is. 

As much as the newly-emerged-from-nowhere antagonists would want to push their agenda of extreme caution, one must remember that nuclear fuel is by an large clean and does not pollute the environment as much as Fossil Fuels do. It also has the ability to drive an entire economy, as it does in France. Most importantly it does not contribute to global warming.

On the other hand protagonists should realize that it just takes one big tragedy (like the one in Japan to occur) to destroy its entire perception and nullify the benefits it has provided till now.The lasting after-effects of nuclear radiation upon our species could become a much trumpeted up charge used to freeze the use of Nuclear energy until we have more security structures in place.

However the very fact that nuclear radiation is harmful to humans should not be seen as the sole reason for putting nuclear energy on the backburner, for conventional sources of energy are already causing as much damage to the already fragile environment albeit at a much slower and less noticeable rate.

The IAEA should move fast to ensure that the structures that it has till date enforced to ensure security of nuclear plants are strictly adhered too. It also now has the arduous task at hand of designing disaster containment systems that would be able to sustain any possible incident of this magnitude or even greater that may occur in the future.

In all this hustle and bustle of repeated telecasts of floating houses, smoking power plants, a population shaken with facemasks and newsmakers who just want to get as close to the source of radiation as possible to make a story break, is the howling sound of a mighty whirlwind and an Industry who's entire future could depend upon the Control Rods in several of the defunct Nuclear reactors.

First on Technorati

Obama: To Intervene or Not to Intervene

Newsweek Magazine recently ran a cover story in it's February 21st edition, which read "Egypt : How Obama Blew it"

The editor takes great pains to prove that Obama's strategy of wait and watch has left America neither here nor there in its battle to win the moslem world. America, according to him, should have extended a hand to the revolution and done more to edge Mubarak out. 

Surprisingly the editor ignores a few of the salient points of American Foreign policy. To start with, (Noam Chomsky would definately concur with this) Americans have always propped up puppet regimes all over the world that serve their vital interests. In the Middle East, the objective was mainly to ensure that the price of oil was stable (or the price that they could buy it from the market was stable).

Indeed the bogey that western-sponsored dictators are any day preferable to hardline fundamentalists, worked for a time and served its purpose. The Obama administration was indeed caught by surprise and on the wrong foot especially when it had to choose sides in the Egyptian Revolution. On one hand, if it threw its weight behind the faceless revolution, other pro-US regimes in the region would have wilted causing more instability.

If it had ignored the protests it would have been taken to task for not practicing what it preaches. A few years ago when Iraq was forcefully overthrown, America had trumpeted it as the dawn of a new age of freedom and democracy for the Arab world. Iraq it seems was not the actual freedom struggle waiting to happen.

Obama and the Secretary of State's carefully calibrated reply reflects the changing contours of American Foreign Policy. Here is a government that could be relied upon to extensively lobby the United Nations into action, but act unilaterally they will certainly not (unlike the previous administration)!!

The case of the Libyan uprising however does make things a lot easier for the US to act. A tyrant with a large sovereign wealth fund who has no qualms about bombing his own people only to secure his throne is an ugly picture for all. The US administration should encounter little opposition when pushing the UN for Action. Howbeit, there will be other spoilsports in the game such as China or Russia who would have their own interests to see to.

This is probably the best shot the US may get to stand with the values it preaches, but they should rope in the UN. Acting unilaterally is indeed the way forward no matter how painstakingly slowly things move. The world community needs to act as a whole, the US can ill afford to be sucked into another war.

First posted on Technorati

They Covet !!

In a Jail cell, Jodie Foster who plays an FBI Investigator tries to interrogate a psychopath, played by Anthony Hopkins in a scene from the 1991 award winning movie The Silence of the Lambs. As the back-and-forth dialogue intensifies, the prison inmate leads the FBI agent down a path into the most basic of human natures. Read On:

Hannibal Lecter: First principles, Clarice. Simplicity. Read Marcus Aurelius - of each particular thing ask: What is it in itself? What is its nature? What does he do, this man you seek?
Clarice Starling: He kills women...
Hannibal Lecter: NO. THAT IS INCIDENTAL!! What is the first and principal thing he does? What needs does he serve by killing?
Clarice Starling: Anger, um, social acceptance, and, huh, sexual frustrations, sir... Hannibal Lecter: NO! HE COVETS !! That is his nature. And how do we begin to covet, Clarice? Do we seek out things to covet? Make an effort to answer now.
Clarice Starling: No. We just...
Hannibal Lecter: No. We begin by coveting what we see every day. Don't you feel eyes moving over your body, Clarice? And don't your eyes seek out the things you want?

In some form or fashion, we all covet. We yearn for things we see most of the time, we lust for the finer spoils of life, to be seen sleepless in the corner office, and to be heard rambling on television. We wouldn't mind surmounting countless boulders with a timeless zeal oblivious to the parched earth on which our tender feet are being forced to tread on. In the end, while basking aloft on the summit we realize that much of the joy is actually behind us. 

Despite this, there are those who desire that which may just prove to be a shade better than what they already possess. They throng their nations capital city squares, maraud government property and have given the age-old crime called arson a new human face. Much of this and even more is all fodder for an over-hungry press ever too willing to cover just about anything.

CNN's Anderson Cooper may have taken a few blows on his face a fortnight ago on the streets of Cairo when the uprising in Egypt reached its zenith, but the real fight may be around the corner, maybe 6 months or a even year away. The main opposition party in Egypt - the Muslim Brotherhood is lying low right now biding its time, waiting for the opportune moment to reveal itself.

Meanwhile as the rest of the Middle East progresses from simmer to boil, Egypt flounders on uncertain of what the future may hold. For the moment though, the military is in charge, though history shows that in most cases, the men in forest green rarely give up the throne without a scuffle of some sort.

What about Libya? There is no doubt whatsoever that these dictators have indeed led their nations down the path of fiscal ruin. The numbers will surely tell you the story; almost 25% of Egypt's youth were unemployed when the riots began.

However, the fundamental question actually is:
"Is democracy the real answer to the regions ills"?

Democracy works to perfection, albeit with a few odd chinks in its armor. Some of its most important facets are the systems that protect the rights of the silent majority and even at times, halt the cries of the bloodthirsty steamrolling majority. Most Arab countries have structures that have flourished over time with a nexus between the oligarchy and the Global Financial Systems with little or scant regard to social issues such as these. The majority were permitted to languish while the rich became richer.

Now, the Arab Nations have chosen the path of the uprising for all the right reasons.

If one were to look a little harder, one can clearly distinguish the fact from the current frenzy. The truth is that they covet Democracy but do not covet its freedoms!! Most of the Arab world detests the freedoms that Western democracies offer to minorities. There are laws in the west that permit abortion, then there are laws against gender discrimination, sexual discrimination and many other forms of discrimination that folks in the Arab world wouldn't even pay heed to.

They covet what they see in the west, for lifestyles that appear fanciful, for streets that are paved with gold or just for its sheer sheen. Their path to democracy would regardless of the road they choose, be a tortuous one. They would pick and choose the bad apples to discard from the policy basket. Minorities would meanwhile live in temporary fear while the majority by and large may just choose to wield their pitchforks every now and then, so as to ensure that despite the freedom to choose, they still have the major say.
The engines of Change have begun to crank, more regimes may fall, but more blood will certainly be spilled.  

First Posted on Technorati

No Trains to Pakistan

The "Train to Pakistan" was one of those memorable brief novels written in the fleeting haste of the bloody India-Pakistan partition war set in the 1950's. It was a time when the subcontinent was psychologically ripped into 2 eternally contentious halves after collateral damage of approximately 6 Million lives all swearing by various deities.

The hordes of Muslims who hurriedly crossed over to Pakistan did so mostly for the sake of their religion. Shortly after Pakistan got its name, its founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah in his first presidential addressed to the nation slipped the following quote through amidst the celebrations: -

"You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place or worship in this State of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business of the State".

Half a century ago; actually, not too long ago, Pakistan did have a Center. They were mostly subcontinenters brought up with a British education and more westward leaning. The Radical streak entered the system with the unlawful entry of General Zia Ul Haq and his troupe in the 70's. From then on, his legion of radicals and hard-line generals began to smudge the existing fine print in the cultural establishment. Slowly the base of tolerance began to erode. Blasphemy laws draconian in nature were laid down.

Over the years the state of Kashmir became a central issue to Pakistani politics. This illegitimate intifada against India was supported to largely on a clandestine basis by the ISI (Pakistans Intelligence Agency). This gifted the generals unquestionable power and leverage in the political establishment. They could depose governments at their own whims and fancies.

At the turn of the century, 9/11 happened, and then suddenly Pakistan found itself at the epi-center of America's fight against terrorism. Ordinary Pakistani's had to contend with a military ruler and his regime gunning down their own home-bred extremists in their own backyard, so that Uncle Sam and his children could tuck themselves to sleep miles away. Obviously this did not win America any brownie points with normal Pakistani's.

Then came the last straw. The Deluge in 2010, that washed away 20% of the country's arable land. Homes were drowned, tens of thousands were displaced and are still living on handouts. Whatever aid that came from the International community was painfully slow. To make matters worse, the Islamic Terrorist groups stepped into the muddy waters and started offering aid thereby cementing their position as guardians of the people and isolating the government even further.

By now, the size of the Center in Pakistan had shrunk to the size of a fist. How could ordinary Pakistani's even think of imbibing the virtues of their most dreaded enemies? The Middle was hence won over to the Right, and whatever was left of the liberal camp had to be contended with whispers in their tents.

Last month the Governor of Punjab Province, Salman Taseer, someone who was bold enough to take on the religious right was gunned down in broad daylight. To add insult to injury, hordes of individuals on the streets, including the patrons of freedom in Pakistan, the lawyers, praised the assassin - Hussain Qadri for his deeds. By now, the liberals had gone into hiding.

It is no surprise that tourism in Pakistan had dropped considerably in the past few years. The Swat Valley, known for its marvelous picturesque views is now a barren land plagued by the occasional rattle of the machine-gun. Drones hover deep above their clear skies spying for suspicious activity on the ground.

Yet, in this chaos, more trains and even busses ply to Pakistan from India as hopes rise for a peaceful solution. Tourists however are staying off. As the nation sinks deeper into radicalism and fundamentalism, backpackers will keep-off, holidayers will prefer to see Shalimar gardens on youtube while the children of the soil may begin to see Birmingham as their first home.

First Posted on Technorati

The Saracen's Sputnik Moment

Last week at the State of the Union Address, President Barack Obama waxed eloquent as he spurred his countrymen on to embrace what he referred to as this generations Sputnik Moment. 

Thousands of miles across the Atlantic a different set of people seem to have picked up the drift. As tens of thousands of frustrated youth throng the streets of Cairo and Alexandria demanding the ouster of their leader, Mubarak's silence is indeed deafening. The Egyptians demands are as genuine as the Tunisians. Corruption, joblessness and a whole host of other ailments that have been simmering over the past 30 years are now coming to a boil on the scorched crowded streets of Cairo.

It is however interesting to note the caution with which world leaders are treading. 

Firstly, President Hosni Mubarak has NOT addressed the nation yet. Of course, it is assumed that as the crisis worsens, he would eventually make some sort of televised address. For the moment though, he chooses to live in ignorance. He is biding time hoping that sooner or later the mobs will get tired, and the protest would loose steam. In fact, in some circles he is even being termed as "arrogant" by announcing the post of a vice president when the country is screaming for his head. Like a poker player he is holding his cards close to his chest and waiting for the other players to call!!

The other player at the table is the US. At stake is a strategically located ally headed by a more-or-less puppet regime which gets 2 Billion dollars in aid receipts annually. Why risk a known friendly neighbourhood dictator for an unknown liberal with an unknown agenda? America has enough on its hands with Iran and Afghanistan. So while America may pay lip service to democratic ideals, secret parleys with Mubarak are certainly underway to untangle the crisis.

Nearly 10 years ago, in 2002, Professor Amy Chua from Yale University published her first book "World On Fire", against the backdrop of the riots in Indonesia against successful ethnic Chinese by a more than a few truckloads of jobless islanders. She made a few valid points about some of the undesirable aspects of Democracy and Globalization at a time when the likes of Thomas Friedman were singing its praises.

Democratic uprisings often place tremendous power and leverage in the hands of rampaging mobs that desecrate everything in their path with impunity. The case of Iran stares glaringly in ones face as an uprising turned sour. Isolated from the International community and a source of constant tension in the middle east, Iran were clearly better off with the Shah, but the Iranians didn't clearly think so.

However in this case, the uprising isn't religion based. The other party at the table, the Muslim Brotherhood is tactfully circling the skies waiting for the mobs to clear the streets in order to swoop down and lay claim to whats left of the revolution.

The 4th player on the table, the one with the most visible might is the army. Loyal to President Hosni Mubarak for all these years, the army has done a u-turn and refused to clamp down on the masses. This has allowed the protests to gather more steam. If at all any party can grab the reins here and set the tone, it is indeed the army.   

Between all these players, lie the legitimate cries for regime change. The once timid Egyptian public has finally arrived at the table are anxiously waiting for action. The players are however nervously passing the buck for everyone else to make the first move in order to retaliate. In such an environment predicting the end result becomes a Permutation formula. 

Things however may not go as badly as one thinks. Egypt is after all fashioned in the similar mould as Turkey is with a large liberal base. Most Egyptians do not favour a return to war with Israel (a scenario that may happen if the Islamic Brotherhood comes to power and decides to scrap the peace accord). A smooth transition by the army to a new administration may yield the much needed reforms needed to boost growth.

Egypt could still stake its claim amongst the most successful yet liberal Muslim nations of the world such as Turkey, Malaysia, etc .. but this certainly will not happen overnight. On the streets, the last tyre is yet to be burnt and the shutters are still half open. The smell of change is ripe in the air. This may after all still prove to be the Saracens Sputnik moment.    

My Open Letter to Bill Gates

Dear Bill,

I must admit it sure isn't easy being in your shoes. I remember curled up in my study room arm-chair in my final year of post graduation more than a decade ago on a hot Sunday afternoon reading the cover story from one of India's premier business magazines - "Business World". The article was about the global IT behemoth Microsoft and how its reach was not only all-pervading but also all-throttling. Those were the days when all you feared was the odd anti-trust case, especially whenever you tried those marketing gimmicks to corner more of your existing marketshare.

That article also had a smal little snippet about how some evangelical Christians had begun to consider you to be the much feared anti-christ. Conspiracy theories were in the air predicting that you and your all powerful juggernaut would ride into power and usher in a new order with the mark of the beast.

A few years after I graduated, the heir to your throne - Steve Ballmer donned your mantle. Now!! Here was a marketing whiz, with no technical experience whatsoever who would spread the brand of Windows to the ends of the earth and thereby cement Microsofts position as IT chieftain for decades to come.

Well, somehow that hasn't really happened yet now, has it !!

In fact you seem to be preoccupied these days with the Melinda Gates foundation, concerned about issues such as Polio eradication in 3rd world countries and curtailing the spread of AIDS. The evangelicals have, as expected, abandoned your candidature for the antichrist and are shortlisting other suspects. However, the nimble powerhouse that you once built now seems tottering like the old elephant IBM once was.

To start with, did you see Steve's keynote address at CES 2011? I thought it was anything but stellar. Does one use primetime on an event as large as CES in taking the audience on a flashback tour of Microsoft's 2010 products!! This is CES, where people are hungry for new technology and new devices. While anxious visitors were eyeing the new smartphones and tablet PC's on display, all that Microsoft could showcase was vague prototypes !!

The Wintel alliance that has lasted Microsoft for decades now has run truely its course. The CISC Architecture worked perfectly with desktops and servers but not with the new range of long-battery life and user-interactive devices. You see, Microsoft needs more baskets to put its eggs into. The future seems (at this point of time) to be RISC based smartphones and tablets. Yet, Microsoft took nearly forever to get on ARM with unnecessary delays.

Windows 7 Phone has been delayed. We do not know when it would be released and even when it officially is, it would fall straight into a market already swamped with androids and iPhones. With all these unnessary delays you have gifted archrival Apple Computers an extra lap in the race, while you sit on the sidelines and toy with options on whether you would tweak Windows CE for Tablets or let Windows 8 rolls out first. I seriously doubt whether Microsoft is serious about the tablet/smartphone market or whether they have decided that the future instead hinges on the success of the other big story - cloud computing.

An article on the Cloud Computing marketplace last year turned up some rather strange leaders (see itweb's report). IBM and CISCO's solutions were among the top 10 cloud solutions listed but names such as Google and Microsoft were nowhere in the reckoning. Companies such as IBM and even Oracle have been in the Enterprise Applications space for a long time and have a wide range of tools at their disposal. Microsoft on the other hand has its successes mainly in the desktop segment with their MS Office toolkit, and even in the gaming segment with X-Box.

To take a step back, Microsoft's forte has always been the Operating system(OS) and productivity tools that revolved around it. As the OS now shifts from the desktop to the tablet/smartphone, I feel that Microsoft would be wise to remain engaged and competitive in its core segment. Trying to be a leader in all segments in an age where disruptive technologies arrive and disappear by the time one's windows PC boots up, is not the best of approaches especially since Microsoft is just not as dominant as it once was!! 

So Mr. Bill, we miss you and your key-note addresses. Everytime you used to get up there on the dias, with your commanding presence and geeky spectacled grin and talk to us (IT developers) about technology (whether it was SOAP, XML or even Sharepoint), we knew you had a vision and knew where you were headed. Now we have to contend with a technically challenged Bozo who apart from chanting "Windows" is pretty much clueless as to how to keep a technical audience engaged.

We need you back at the helm Bill, either you or Paul Allen !! Someone recently said when non-economists start talking like economists, then something is really wrong with the economy. Likewise when non-technocrats start talking technology, then something is surely wrong !!