Last week at the State of the Union Address, President Barack Obama waxed eloquent as he spurred his countrymen on to embrace what he referred to as this generations Sputnik Moment.
Thousands of miles across the Atlantic a different set of people seem to have picked up the drift. As tens of thousands of frustrated youth throng the streets of Cairo and Alexandria demanding the ouster of their leader, Mubarak's silence is indeed deafening. The Egyptians demands are as genuine as the Tunisians. Corruption, joblessness and a whole host of other ailments that have been simmering over the past 30 years are now coming to a boil on the scorched crowded streets of Cairo.
It is however interesting to note the caution with which world leaders are treading.
Firstly, President Hosni Mubarak has NOT addressed the nation yet. Of course, it is assumed that as the crisis worsens, he would eventually make some sort of televised address. For the moment though, he chooses to live in ignorance. He is biding time hoping that sooner or later the mobs will get tired, and the protest would loose steam. In fact, in some circles he is even being termed as "arrogant" by announcing the post of a vice president when the country is screaming for his head. Like a poker player he is holding his cards close to his chest and waiting for the other players to call!!
The other player at the table is the US. At stake is a strategically located ally headed by a more-or-less puppet regime which gets 2 Billion dollars in aid receipts annually. Why risk a known friendly neighbourhood dictator for an unknown liberal with an unknown agenda? America has enough on its hands with Iran and Afghanistan. So while America may pay lip service to democratic ideals, secret parleys with Mubarak are certainly underway to untangle the crisis.
Nearly 10 years ago, in 2002, Professor Amy Chua from Yale University published her first book "World On Fire", against the backdrop of the riots in Indonesia against successful ethnic Chinese by a more than a few truckloads of jobless islanders. She made a few valid points about some of the undesirable aspects of Democracy and Globalization at a time when the likes of Thomas Friedman were singing its praises.
Democratic uprisings often place tremendous power and leverage in the hands of rampaging mobs that desecrate everything in their path with impunity. The case of Iran stares glaringly in ones face as an uprising turned sour. Isolated from the International community and a source of constant tension in the middle east, Iran were clearly better off with the Shah, but the Iranians didn't clearly think so.
However in this case, the uprising isn't religion based. The other party at the table, the Muslim Brotherhood is tactfully circling the skies waiting for the mobs to clear the streets in order to swoop down and lay claim to whats left of the revolution.
The 4th player on the table, the one with the most visible might is the army. Loyal to President Hosni Mubarak for all these years, the army has done a u-turn and refused to clamp down on the masses. This has allowed the protests to gather more steam. If at all any party can grab the reins here and set the tone, it is indeed the army.
Between all these players, lie the legitimate cries for regime change. The once timid Egyptian public has finally arrived at the table are anxiously waiting for action. The players are however nervously passing the buck for everyone else to make the first move in order to retaliate. In such an environment predicting the end result becomes a Permutation formula.
Things however may not go as badly as one thinks. Egypt is after all fashioned in the similar mould as Turkey is with a large liberal base. Most Egyptians do not favour a return to war with Israel (a scenario that may happen if the Islamic Brotherhood comes to power and decides to scrap the peace accord). A smooth transition by the army to a new administration may yield the much needed reforms needed to boost growth.
Egypt could still stake its claim amongst the most successful yet liberal Muslim nations of the world such as Turkey, Malaysia, etc .. but this certainly will not happen overnight. On the streets, the last tyre is yet to be burnt and the shutters are still half open. The smell of change is ripe in the air. This may after all still prove to be the Saracens Sputnik moment.
Thousands of miles across the Atlantic a different set of people seem to have picked up the drift. As tens of thousands of frustrated youth throng the streets of Cairo and Alexandria demanding the ouster of their leader, Mubarak's silence is indeed deafening. The Egyptians demands are as genuine as the Tunisians. Corruption, joblessness and a whole host of other ailments that have been simmering over the past 30 years are now coming to a boil on the scorched crowded streets of Cairo.
It is however interesting to note the caution with which world leaders are treading.
Firstly, President Hosni Mubarak has NOT addressed the nation yet. Of course, it is assumed that as the crisis worsens, he would eventually make some sort of televised address. For the moment though, he chooses to live in ignorance. He is biding time hoping that sooner or later the mobs will get tired, and the protest would loose steam. In fact, in some circles he is even being termed as "arrogant" by announcing the post of a vice president when the country is screaming for his head. Like a poker player he is holding his cards close to his chest and waiting for the other players to call!!
The other player at the table is the US. At stake is a strategically located ally headed by a more-or-less puppet regime which gets 2 Billion dollars in aid receipts annually. Why risk a known friendly neighbourhood dictator for an unknown liberal with an unknown agenda? America has enough on its hands with Iran and Afghanistan. So while America may pay lip service to democratic ideals, secret parleys with Mubarak are certainly underway to untangle the crisis.
Nearly 10 years ago, in 2002, Professor Amy Chua from Yale University published her first book "World On Fire", against the backdrop of the riots in Indonesia against successful ethnic Chinese by a more than a few truckloads of jobless islanders. She made a few valid points about some of the undesirable aspects of Democracy and Globalization at a time when the likes of Thomas Friedman were singing its praises.
Democratic uprisings often place tremendous power and leverage in the hands of rampaging mobs that desecrate everything in their path with impunity. The case of Iran stares glaringly in ones face as an uprising turned sour. Isolated from the International community and a source of constant tension in the middle east, Iran were clearly better off with the Shah, but the Iranians didn't clearly think so.
However in this case, the uprising isn't religion based. The other party at the table, the Muslim Brotherhood is tactfully circling the skies waiting for the mobs to clear the streets in order to swoop down and lay claim to whats left of the revolution.
The 4th player on the table, the one with the most visible might is the army. Loyal to President Hosni Mubarak for all these years, the army has done a u-turn and refused to clamp down on the masses. This has allowed the protests to gather more steam. If at all any party can grab the reins here and set the tone, it is indeed the army.
Between all these players, lie the legitimate cries for regime change. The once timid Egyptian public has finally arrived at the table are anxiously waiting for action. The players are however nervously passing the buck for everyone else to make the first move in order to retaliate. In such an environment predicting the end result becomes a Permutation formula.
Things however may not go as badly as one thinks. Egypt is after all fashioned in the similar mould as Turkey is with a large liberal base. Most Egyptians do not favour a return to war with Israel (a scenario that may happen if the Islamic Brotherhood comes to power and decides to scrap the peace accord). A smooth transition by the army to a new administration may yield the much needed reforms needed to boost growth.
Egypt could still stake its claim amongst the most successful yet liberal Muslim nations of the world such as Turkey, Malaysia, etc .. but this certainly will not happen overnight. On the streets, the last tyre is yet to be burnt and the shutters are still half open. The smell of change is ripe in the air. This may after all still prove to be the Saracens Sputnik moment.
No comments:
Post a Comment